VICI Properties Stock: Dividend vs AFFO, Caesars and MGM Rent, Debt

The dividend against AFFO and FFO

VICI is a REIT that owns casino and other leisure real estate under long triple-net leases and lends against other projects. Its AFFO is its own measure: it starts from net income, takes out non-cash rent adjustments (straight-line and effective-interest income) and the non-cash change in the credit-loss allowance, and adds back small items such as stock compensation and debt-cost amortization. Unlike most REITs it has no real estate depreciation to add back, because its leases are accounted for as sales-type leases or financing receivables, so GAAP FFO equals net income. The table sets the dividend against AFFO in dollars, which avoids rounding in per-share figures.

Common dividends declared were 72.9% of AFFO in Q2 2026, and four readings of the table follow.

The payout has not moved because both sides grow at the same rate. The dividend per share rose 4.0% from $0.4325 to $0.45 in Q3 2025; AFFO per share rose 4.6% in Q2 2026. Quarterly AFFO per share has gone $0.60, $0.60, $0.61, $0.62 from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, and AFFO in dollars grew faster (7.8%) than per share because the share count grew. The company guides to $2.45 to $2.47 per share for 2026, up from $2.44 to $2.47, and the annualized dividend of $1.80 is 72.9% to 73.5% of that range (our arithmetic). The 10-Q lists the Q2 declaration (June 4, paid July 9). The Q3 2026 declaration is not in any SEC filing we read as of October 16, so the $1.80 annual rate is the last one on file.

FFO swings on credit-loss estimates, and AFFO does not. Under current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting VICI books an allowance against every lease and loan it owns, and the change runs through net income. In Q2 2026 the charge was $271.1 million; a year earlier it was a $142.0 million release. That is the whole difference between FFO of $0.48 and $0.82 a share. It is non-cash and the company strips it out of AFFO, but it is also why the dividend looks like 94.1% of FFO in one quarter and 52.8% in another. A holder reading FFO alone would draw the wrong conclusion in both directions.

Cash covers the dividend as well. Net cash from operating activities was $1,360.0 million in the first half of 2026 against $978.8 million of dividends and distributions to non-controlling interests paid, 1.39 times (our arithmetic). The company retains little: AFFO after common dividends was $354.0 million in the half, while investing used $1,025.8 million of cash. The gap is covered with new equity ($242.1 million from settling 7.75 million forward shares), the revolver and cash, which fell from $563.5 million to $288.1 million.

More shares mean a bigger total dividend. Common shares outstanding were 1,068,811,371 at December 31, 2025 and 1,101,074,906 at June 30, 2026, up 3.0% (our arithmetic): 24,296,255 for Golden Entertainment, 7,750,000 from the forward and the rest stock compensation. The company's own dividend yield at June 30 was 6.8% on a $26.55 share price; that is a dated figure, not a current quote.

Caesars and MGM: concentration, the buyout and what is not disclosed

The 10-Q says it directly: “Other than having two tenants from which we derive and will continue to derive a substantial portion of our revenue and our concentration in the Las Vegas market, we do not believe there are any other significant concentrations of credit risk.” The percentages differ by measure, so here are the three the company gives.

Las Vegas Strip properties generated about 49% of lease revenues, and the company's gaming rent splits 52% regional, 47% Strip and 1% international. The two tenants' share has been drifting down: Caesars 39% of contractual rent in 2023, 37% in 2025, 36% in Q2 2026; MGM 37%, 36%, 34%. MGM's fall includes a real event: in April 2026 VICI leased Northfield Park in Ohio to an affiliate of funds managed by Clairvest, as MGM sold its operations there, and cut MGM's rent by the initial $53.0 million. That moves rent between tenants more than it adds new money: 77% of rent is still from publicly traded tenants.

Caesars is being bought. Caesars Entertainment's May 28, 2026 8-K reports a merger agreement dated May 27 with Fertitta Gaming Holdco, LLC under which each share converts into $31.00 in cash, plus a ticking fee of $0.007150 a day if the deal has not closed by June 26, 2027. Its stockholders approved it on September 22, 2026. The agreement's End Date is May 27, 2027, with automatic extensions to August 27 and November 27, 2027 if regulatory conditions remain open. Caesars leases 18 casinos from VICI under a regional lease, a Las Vegas lease and a Joliet lease. What we can say from filings: the proxy's account of earlier bidding has the Icahn Group telling Caesars on July 13, 2026 that its proposal depended on a rollover “to address the change of control issues in the Company’s debt and consent rights under the VICI lease.” That is a bidder's statement, not VICI's, and it shows the VICI lease carries consent rights. VICI's Q2 10-Q, its July 29 release and its supplemental do not mention the merger, and the 10-Q says nothing about how the leases would change. The rent stays contractual until a change is filed.

There is no coverage ratio to read. Rent coverage (tenant property EBITDAR divided by rent) is the standard test for a net lease REIT. For Caesars and MGM the filings we read do not give one. What they give instead:

• VICI's CECL note rates each lease by the credit rating of the guarantor's senior secured debt. At June 30, 2026, $33,239.6 million of $49,513.0 million of amortized cost (67.1%, our arithmetic) was in the Ba3 bucket, $6,065.1 million (12.2%) in B2 and $739.1 million in Caa1.
• At December 31, 2025 there was a $4,874.0 million Ba2 bucket and a $449.7 million B2 bucket. In the second quarter the allowance rose in part for “an increase in the estimate for the Long-Term Period PD for one of our tenants as a result of the tenant issuing new senior secured debt with a lower credit rating than our prior estimate.” The note does not name the tenant; our reading is that the Ba2 amount moved into B2.
• Caesars' own 10-Q says its GLPI leases carry a minimum adjusted revenue to rent ratio of 1.20:1, and that its VICI leases contain covenants “maintaining certain financial ratios,” without giving a number for them. It estimates lease payments to VICI and GLPI of about $687 million for the rest of 2026.

That is the honest limit of what the filings show: the leases are guaranteed by Caesars and MGM parents, the guarantor ratings are non-investment grade, and the property-level coverage is not public in these documents.

Rent escalators: how much of the rent is CPI-linked

All VICI leases have annual escalators. The 10-Q says they range from a flat 1% to 2%, to 1% early with the greater of 2% or CPI later, sometimes capped. We split the July 2026 rent roll by whether the current-year escalator is a floor-or-CPI clause or a fixed percentage.

Two caveats on the split. "CPI-linked" here means the escalator is the greater of a floor and CPI, so in a year when CPI is below 2% the rent rises by the floor and CPI changes nothing. And the fixed leases will turn into CPI clauses later: the Northfield Park lease says escalation becomes the greater of 2.0% and CPI, capped at 3.0%, “beginning at the same time as the MGM Master Lease in 2032.” For the Caesars leases the next two dates are November 1, 2026, when lease year 10 begins and the November CPI escalation takes effect (per Caesars' 10-Q), and November 2027, the start of lease year 11, when 20% of base rent turns variable: a reset worth 4% of the change in the property revenues between two averaged three-year windows. At today's rent 20% is $249.2 million (our arithmetic), and the filing does not say which way the reset will go.

Debt and the August refinancing

At June 30, 2026 total debt was $17,218.4 million: $13,950.0 million of senior notes, $3,000.0 million of CMBS debt on the MGM Grand and Mandalay Bay at 3.558% due March 2032, and $268.4 million drawn on the revolver (in Canadian dollars and pounds). Liquidity was $2,519.6 million, $288.1 million of cash and $2,231.6 million on a $2.5 billion revolver. The covenants the company reports: interest coverage 4.1 times (minimum 1.5), unencumbered assets 319% of unsecured debt (minimum 150%), net debt 34% of adjusted total assets (maximum 60%).

On August 5, 2026 VICI Properties L.P. priced $900 million of 5.400% notes due October 15, 2031 (at 99.966% of par) and $850 million of 5.750% notes due October 15, 2036 (at 98.375%), closed on August 14, and said it would use the estimated $1,720.0 million of net proceeds to repay $480.5 million and $19.5 million of 4.500% notes due September 1 and $1.25 billion of 4.250% notes due December 1. The Q2 10-Q shows $600.0 million of forward-starting swaps entered for exactly this issue. Annual interest on the new notes at the coupons is $97.5 million against $75.6 million on the notes repaid, an extra $21.9 million, or $0.02 a share on the 1,090.3 million shares in guidance (our arithmetic). The swaps lower the effective rate and the Q3 10-Q will show by how much. The company's guidance says it “does not include the impact on operating results from” capital markets activity, among other items. The new notes are not guaranteed by the parent and are secured by a limited pledge of partnership interests; the indenture requires unencumbered assets of at least 150% of unsecured debt.

Golden, Venetian, loans and the other recent deals

The brief for this page named Golden Entertainment, the Venetian and Cherry Hill. Golden and the Venetian are in the filings; we found no VICI filing that mentions Cherry Hill, so nothing on this page is about it.

The loan book at June 30 had $4,211.5 million of commitments, $3,030.4 million of principal at a blended 9.4% and $285.7 million of annualized income; $1,181.1 million of further loan funding is committed, $473.0 million of it in the rest of 2026. Income from loans and securities was $71.6 million in Q2 against $54.7 million, 6.8% of revenue (our arithmetic). Two loans carry signs of stress: one fully funded senior secured loan on a luxury golf-resort development, $80.7 million of principal, is on non-accrual, and one $90.0 million loan (3.0% of the loan portfolio) was modified, with a lower rate, a longer maturity, more required amortization and additional collateral. It was performing under the new terms.

What a holder watches before the Q3 10-Q

The 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 is not filed as of October 16, 2026. VICI filed its last four earnings 8-Ks on October 30, 2025, February 25, April 29 and July 29, 2026, with the 10-Q the same day in the two most recent quarters, so late October is the pattern; no filing we read gives a date for this one. The last VICI filings on EDGAR are a board appointment 8-K on September 8 and an 8-K/A on September 22, 2026.

How a listed casino REIT differs from a non-traded one

A holder of a non-traded net lease REIT has a NAV set by the manager and a repurchase program the board can change. VICI trades on the NYSE every day and its price moves; the filings do not tell you where the stock will trade. Our pages on publicly traded versus non-traded REITs and the triple-net lease clauses that matter cover the mechanics; the Realty Income and W. P. Carey pages do the same exercise for diversified net lease, where no two tenants pay 70% of rent. If VICI sits inside a REIT ETF, see what the big REIT ETFs hold. For the tax side of REIT dividends, see return of capital on REIT distributions and Section 199A.

What a holder or reader can do with this

This page is analysis of public documents, not investment, legal or tax advice. What the filings let you check yourself:

• Use the right payout. Common dividends declared were 72.9% of AFFO in Q2 2026 and 94.1% of FFO; FFO is distorted by the credit-loss allowance, AFFO adds it back. Both are in the 10-Q.
• Read concentration as a pair. Two parents guarantee about 70% of the rent. The filings give no coverage ratio for either, so the guarantors' own filings and credit ratings are the check.
• Follow the Caesars merger in Caesars' filings. VICI's filings do not describe it. The End Date of May 27, 2027 and the extensions to November 27 are the dates in the agreement.
• Separate rent growth from share growth. AFFO grew 7.8% in Q2; per share 4.6%. Check the share count in every 10-Q.
• Mark the dated items. The Q3 10-Q (not filed as of October 16), the Q3 declaration, the November 1 escalators, the Venetian option expiry on November 1, and the February 2027 maturity of $1.5 billion.
• Size the position. One REIT with two tenants in one city is a concentrated bet; an index fund plus a direct holding doubles it.

If a large part of your portfolio sits in one REIT whose main tenant is changing owners, a conversation with a qualified adviser about position size and how it fits the rest of your holdings may be worth having.

FAQ

All VICI figures are from VICI Properties Inc. (SEC CIK 1705696) filings read on EDGAR on October 16, 2026: Form 10-K for 2025 (accession 0001705696-26-000034); Form 10-Q for June 30, 2026 (0001705696-26-000090, filed July 29, 2026); Forms 8-K with earnings releases and supplementals of October 30, 2025 (0001705696-25-000130), February 25, 2026 (0001705696-26-000033), April 29, 2026 (0001705696-26-000068) and July 29, 2026 (0001705696-26-000088); Forms 8-K of February 4, 2025 (0001104659-25-008898), August 6, 2026 (0001104659-26-092034), August 14, 2026 (0001104659-26-097167) and September 8, 2026 (0001705696-26-000092). Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (CIK 1590895) documents: Form 8-K of May 28, 2026 (0001193125-26-242995), definitive proxy statement DEFM14A of August 26, 2026 (0001193125-26-365696), Form 8-K of September 23, 2026 (0001193125-26-398606) and Form 10-Q for June 30, 2026 (0001590895-26-000028). Payout ratios, sums, shares of totals, the CPI-linked split, interest differences and per-share conversions are our arithmetic from those rows; AFFO, FFO, Adjusted EBITDA, net leverage and annualized rent are the company's definitions and non-GAAP or supplemental measures. Share prices and yields are those printed in the filings on the dates shown and are not current. This is analysis of public documents, not investment, legal or tax advice.