Cash-on-Cash Return Calculator With Real State Benchmarks (2026)
Quick Answer
As of October 9, 2026, at today's investor mortgage rate the median rental house has a negative cash-on-cash return in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, and a house needs to rent for roughly 0.8% to 1.0% of its price just to break even. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% for the week of October 8, 2026. Loans made to investors in 2025 were priced about 0.53 points above the 2025 Freddie Mac average (the median note rate on 87,068 investment-property purchase loans in seven states was 7.125% against a 6.595% average, our arithmetic from 2025 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data), so we model 7.93%. With 25% down, the US medians from the Census Bureau's 2024 American Community Survey (rent $1,487 a month, home value $360,600, real estate taxes $3,211) give a cap rate of 2.55% and a cash-on-cash return of -14.3%: West Virginia is the best state at -9.9% and New Jersey the worst at -19.0% (our arithmetic). Break-even rent is 0.76% (Hawaii) to 0.97% (Illinois) of the home value, and an 8% return needs 1.01% to 1.22%: the 1% rule is close to the break-even line at today's rates, not a bonus. The 2025 ACS release has no date, so 2024 is the newest. The calculator below uses these numbers as defaults; replace them with your property's. Insurance, vacancy, maintenance and management are labelled assumptions, and this is analysis of public records, not investment, lending or tax advice.
Cash-on-cash return calculator
Loaded now: United States (median). Pre-tax, year one. Defaults are the US medians from the Census Bureau (ACS 2024) and the NAIC (2023 data), the 7.3% Census rental vacancy rate (second quarter 2026) and a 7.93% loan rate (Freddie Mac 30-year average of 7.40% for the week of October 8, 2026 plus a 0.53-point investor premium measured from 2025 HMDA loans, our arithmetic). Closing costs, maintenance, capital reserve and management are our assumptions.
Purchase
Loan
Income and expenses
| Gross scheduled rent | $17,844 |
| − Vacancy | $1,303 |
| − Operating expenses | $7,338 |
| Net operating income (NOI) | $9,204 |
| − Debt service ($1,971/mo on $270,450) | $23,655 |
| Annual pre-tax cash flow | -$14,452 |
| Cash invested (down + closing + repairs) | $100,968 |
| Cash-on-cash if bought all cash | 2.5% |
| Rent that makes cash flow zero | $3,087/mo |
1% rule: monthly rent is 0.41% of price plus repairs. Fails the 1% screen.
50% rule: operating expenses (no mortgage) are 41% of gross rent. Below the 50% rule of thumb.
Leverage: the loan lowers your cash-on-cash against buying all cash (negative leverage).
Formulas: NOI = collected rent − (taxes + insurance + maintenance + capex reserve + management). Cash flow = NOI − 12 × monthly principal and interest. Cash-on-cash = annual pre-tax cash flow ÷ (down payment + closing costs + repairs). Cap rate = NOI ÷ price. DSCR = NOI ÷ annual debt service (lenders often use rent ÷ PITIA instead). It ignores income tax, depreciation, principal paydown, appreciation and rent growth. The 1% and 50% rules are rules of thumb, not standards. Analysis, not investment, lending or tax advice.
Key Takeaways
- The rate: Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.40% on October 8, 2026 (6.95% on September 17). Investors paid more than owner-occupants in 2025: in seven states the median note rate on 87,068 investment-property purchase loans was 7.125% against 6.625% on 580,319 owner-occupied purchase loans, and 0.53 points above the 2025 average Freddie Mac rate of 6.595% (HMDA 2025, our arithmetic). The page models 7.93%.
- Nowhere positive: with 25% down, 3% closing costs and a 30-year loan at 7.93%, cash-on-cash is negative in all 50 states and DC at the median rent, value, tax and insurance. West Virginia -9.9%, Oklahoma -12.2%, Florida -12.2%, Texas -14.3%, California -17.8%, New Jersey -19.0% (ACS 2024, NAIC 2023, our arithmetic). Even at the plain Freddie Mac rate of 7.40% no state turns positive.
- Gross yield: median rent is 4.95% of median value a year nationally, from 2.66% in Hawaii to 6.37% in Mississippi. No state reaches 7%, and only Mississippi and West Virginia (6.20%) reach 6%.
- The 1% rule is the break-even line: the rent that makes cash flow zero is 0.76% to 0.97% of the home value across the states, and the rent for an 8% cash-on-cash return is 1.01% to 1.22%. The 8% is our illustrative target, not a standard.
- How the number lies, on a hypothetical $150,000 house renting for $1,500 (a 7.03% cap rate): 1.7% cash-on-cash with 25% down at 7.93%, but 6.8% if bought for cash, 6.0% if the maintenance and capital reserve lines are dropped, and 9.3% in year 10 if rent and costs rise 3% a year against a fixed payment (our arithmetic, not data).
- The inputs are medians, not a deal: ACS rent covers all renter-occupied units, ACS value covers owner-occupied homes, and insurance is the NAIC's owner-occupied dwelling-fire average. Use the benchmark to know how far a listing is from a typical market, then enter the real rent, tax and insurance quote.
CSV · 465 rows
Cash-on-cash return by state: ACS 2024 rent, value and tax, NAIC 2023 insurance, Freddie Mac PMMS (October 8, 2026) and the 2025 HMDA investor rate premium
Freddie Mac 30-year rate and 2025 average, HMDA 2025 median investor and owner-occupied note rates for seven states, ACS 2024 median rent, value and taxes, NAIC 2023 premiums, derived cap rate, cash-on-cash and break-even rent for 50 states and DC, and the worked examples. One source per row.
What cash-on-cash return is, and the formula
Cash-on-cash return is the year's pre-tax cash flow divided by the cash you put in. Cash flow is what is left of the rent after vacancy, operating costs and the mortgage payment; cash invested is the down payment, closing costs and any repairs paid at purchase. It answers one question, how fast the money you actually spent comes back as cash, and it leaves out principal paydown, appreciation, depreciation and income tax.
| Step | Formula | Example house (hypothetical) |
|---|---|---|
| Gross scheduled rent | monthly rent x 12 | $1,500 x 12 = $18,000 |
| Collected rent | gross rent - vacancy (7.3% here) | $16,686 |
| Operating expenses | tax + insurance + maintenance + capex reserve + management | $1,800 tax + $1,200 insurance + $1,800 maintenance and reserve (10% of rent) + $1,335 management = $6,135 |
| Net operating income (NOI) | collected rent - operating expenses | $10,551 (cap rate 7.03% of $150,000) |
| Debt service | 12 x monthly principal and interest on 75% of the price | $9,840 at 7.93% over 30 years |
| Annual cash flow | NOI - debt service | $711 |
| Cash invested | down payment + closing costs + repairs | $37,500 + $4,500 = $42,000 |
| Cash-on-cash return | cash flow / cash invested | 1.7% (our arithmetic) |
The same formula is in our rental property calculator, which also has the insurance, vacancy and HUD rent inputs for every state, and the cap rate it starts from is explained in our cap rate calculator page. This page does something those do not: it puts the interest rate an investor is actually quoted into the state numbers, because the rate decides the sign of the answer.
Which mortgage rate to use: Freddie Mac plus what investors paid
The weekly Freddie Mac survey measures loans to well-qualified owner-occupant borrowers, and investors pay more. The federal HMDA record shows how much more. We took the 2025 HMDA files for seven states (California, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas) and kept originated, first-lien, conventional home-purchase loans on one to four units with a 30-year term and a fixed rate. Investment properties had a median note rate of 7.125% on 87,068 loans; owner-occupied homes had 6.625% on 580,319 loans. The weekly Freddie Mac 30-year readings dated in 2025 average 6.595% (53 readings), so the investor premium is 0.53 points (our arithmetic). Owner-occupied loans sat 0.03 points above that average, so the extra half point is about occupancy, not about the sample. Our investment property mortgage rates study reads the national file and finds a similar premium for personal-purpose 30-year loans.
We then add the 0.53 points to the latest Freddie Mac reading: 7.40% + 0.53 = 7.93%. That assumes the spread has not changed since 2025, which we cannot see until 2026 HMDA data exist. The Freddie Mac rate itself moved from 6.76% on September 10 to 7.40% on October 8, 2026, so a quote from last month is already stale. HMDA has note rates, not points or lender fees, and a lender that charges points can quote a lower rate. Use your own written quote instead of ours.
| State (HMDA 2025) | Investor median note rate | Investor loans | Owner-occupied median | Premium over 2025 Freddie Mac average (pts) | Rate used with today's 7.40% | Cash-on-cash at that rate | Cash-on-cash at 7.93% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California | 6.999% | 16,836 | 6.625% | +0.40 | 7.80% | -17.5% | -17.8% |
| Georgia | 7.125% | 6,834 | 6.625% | +0.53 | 7.93% | -12.7% | -12.7% |
| New Jersey | 7.250% | 6,508 | 6.625% | +0.66 | 8.05% | -19.2% | -19.0% |
| Ohio | 7.375% | 7,795 | 6.625% | +0.78 | 8.18% | -14.9% | -14.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 7.375% | 7,322 | 6.625% | +0.78 | 8.18% | -14.3% | -13.7% |
| Florida | 7.125% | 22,672 | 6.625% | +0.53 | 7.93% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| Texas | 6.990% | 19,101 | 6.500% | +0.40 | 7.79% | -14.0% | -14.3% |
The premium runs from 0.40 points (Texas) to 0.78 (Ohio and Pennsylvania). In the last column every state uses the same 7.93%, so it differs from the one before only because the state's own premium was higher or lower. Neither column is a quote.
Cash-on-cash return by state
Every row uses the state's median gross rent (ACS table B25064), median home value (B25077) and median real estate taxes paid (B25103), the NAIC's average dwelling-fire premium for insurance, the Census Bureau's 7.3% second-quarter 2026 rental vacancy rate, and our assumptions of 5% maintenance, 5% capital reserve and 8% management, with 25% down, 3% closing costs and a 30-year loan at 7.93%. The last two columns are the monthly rent, as a share of the home value, at which cash flow is zero and at which cash-on-cash reaches 8%.
| State | Median rent | Median value | Rent / value (monthly) | Cap rate | Cash-on-cash | Break-even rent / value | Rent / value for 8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | $1,077 | $233,300 | 0.46% | 3.50% | -10.9% | 0.80% | 1.05% |
| Alaska | $1,444 | $376,500 | 0.38% | 2.28% | -15.3% | 0.86% | 1.11% |
| Arizona | $1,672 | $426,000 | 0.39% | 2.97% | -12.8% | 0.79% | 1.04% |
| Arkansas | $982 | $215,600 | 0.46% | 3.33% | -11.5% | 0.81% | 1.06% |
| California | $2,104 | $759,500 | 0.28% | 1.57% | -17.8% | 0.83% | 1.08% |
| Colorado | $1,822 | $574,600 | 0.32% | 2.20% | -15.6% | 0.80% | 1.05% |
| Connecticut | $1,550 | $396,900 | 0.39% | 1.57% | -17.8% | 0.94% | 1.19% |
| Delaware | $1,530 | $371,600 | 0.41% | 3.12% | -12.3% | 0.79% | 1.04% |
| District of Columbia | $1,931 | $733,400 | 0.26% | 1.70% | -17.3% | 0.80% | 1.05% |
| Florida | $1,812 | $396,900 | 0.46% | 3.13% | -12.2% | 0.84% | 1.08% |
| Georgia | $1,506 | $343,300 | 0.44% | 3.00% | -12.7% | 0.83% | 1.08% |
| Hawaii | $1,942 | $875,900 | 0.22% | 1.66% | -17.5% | 0.76% | 1.01% |
| Idaho | $1,384 | $446,400 | 0.31% | 2.22% | -15.5% | 0.79% | 1.04% |
| Illinois | $1,322 | $280,700 | 0.47% | 2.01% | -16.2% | 0.97% | 1.22% |
| Indiana | $1,104 | $243,500 | 0.45% | 3.05% | -12.5% | 0.84% | 1.09% |
| Iowa | $981 | $227,300 | 0.43% | 2.32% | -15.1% | 0.90% | 1.15% |
| Kansas | $1,079 | $238,700 | 0.45% | 2.67% | -13.9% | 0.88% | 1.13% |
| Kentucky | $998 | $226,000 | 0.44% | 3.08% | -12.4% | 0.83% | 1.07% |
| Louisiana | $1,064 | $223,200 | 0.48% | 2.92% | -13.0% | 0.88% | 1.13% |
| Maine | $1,210 | $341,900 | 0.35% | 2.13% | -15.8% | 0.84% | 1.09% |
| Maryland | $1,721 | $436,300 | 0.39% | 2.44% | -14.7% | 0.85% | 1.10% |
| Massachusetts | $1,848 | $607,400 | 0.30% | 1.58% | -17.8% | 0.86% | 1.10% |
| Michigan | $1,168 | $254,200 | 0.46% | 2.57% | -14.3% | 0.90% | 1.15% |
| Minnesota | $1,291 | $344,600 | 0.37% | 2.20% | -15.6% | 0.86% | 1.10% |
| Mississippi | $990 | $186,500 | 0.53% | 2.79% | -13.5% | 0.95% | 1.20% |
| Missouri | $1,067 | $254,400 | 0.42% | 2.72% | -13.7% | 0.84% | 1.09% |
| Montana | $1,177 | $425,400 | 0.28% | 1.62% | -17.7% | 0.82% | 1.07% |
| Nebraska | $1,102 | $263,100 | 0.42% | 2.08% | -16.0% | 0.91% | 1.16% |
| Nevada | $1,709 | $455,500 | 0.38% | 2.80% | -13.4% | 0.79% | 1.04% |
| New Hampshire | $1,558 | $458,800 | 0.34% | 1.45% | -18.2% | 0.91% | 1.15% |
| New Jersey | $1,800 | $496,000 | 0.36% | 1.25% | -19.0% | 0.95% | 1.20% |
| New Mexico | $1,117 | $279,900 | 0.40% | 2.63% | -14.0% | 0.83% | 1.08% |
| New York | $1,634 | $449,800 | 0.36% | 1.68% | -17.4% | 0.90% | 1.15% |
| North Carolina | $1,338 | $333,000 | 0.40% | 2.90% | -13.1% | 0.81% | 1.05% |
| North Dakota | $980 | $266,100 | 0.37% | 2.17% | -15.7% | 0.85% | 1.10% |
| Ohio | $1,090 | $239,800 | 0.45% | 2.55% | -14.3% | 0.90% | 1.15% |
| Oklahoma | $1,044 | $222,100 | 0.47% | 3.14% | -12.2% | 0.85% | 1.10% |
| Oregon | $1,597 | $497,500 | 0.32% | 1.94% | -16.5% | 0.83% | 1.08% |
| Pennsylvania | $1,252 | $277,600 | 0.45% | 2.72% | -13.7% | 0.88% | 1.12% |
| Rhode Island | $1,418 | $455,700 | 0.31% | 1.48% | -18.1% | 0.87% | 1.12% |
| South Carolina | $1,272 | $299,500 | 0.42% | 3.20% | -12.0% | 0.80% | 1.04% |
| South Dakota | $999 | $289,600 | 0.34% | 1.92% | -16.6% | 0.86% | 1.11% |
| Tennessee | $1,284 | $332,600 | 0.39% | 2.84% | -13.3% | 0.80% | 1.05% |
| Texas | $1,475 | $313,200 | 0.47% | 2.55% | -14.3% | 0.91% | 1.16% |
| Utah | $1,593 | $545,200 | 0.29% | 2.07% | -16.0% | 0.79% | 1.04% |
| Vermont | $1,319 | $352,800 | 0.37% | 1.77% | -17.1% | 0.90% | 1.15% |
| Virginia | $1,646 | $403,500 | 0.41% | 2.85% | -13.2% | 0.82% | 1.07% |
| Washington | $1,824 | $602,200 | 0.30% | 1.80% | -17.0% | 0.83% | 1.08% |
| West Virginia | $883 | $170,800 | 0.52% | 3.80% | -9.9% | 0.82% | 1.07% |
| Wisconsin | $1,142 | $294,700 | 0.39% | 2.05% | -16.1% | 0.89% | 1.14% |
| Wyoming | $998 | $339,500 | 0.29% | 1.79% | -17.1% | 0.82% | 1.07% |
| United States (median) | $1,487 | $360,600 | 0.41% | 2.55% | -14.3% | 0.86% | 1.10% |
Two cautions about reading it. First, a median house is not a rental house: the rent median covers every renter-occupied unit, apartments included, while the value and tax medians cover owner-occupied homes, so a single-family rental in a given state may rent for more than the median. Second, the NAIC defines its dwelling-fire premium for owner-occupied one-family buildings, not landlord policies, so insurance is a floor. The table says how far an average market sits from a working deal, not whether your deal works. The 2025 ACS one-year estimates have no release date: the Census Bureau says it is assessing a new disclosure-avoidance order and aims to release the tables later in the year, so this page keeps 2024 and will move when the 2025 tables appear.
What the 1% rule, the 50% rule and the "7% rule" are really measuring
The 1% rule says monthly rent should be at least 1% of the price. At a 7.93% loan, 25% down and the expense assumptions above, the rent that makes cash flow zero is 0.76% of the home value in Hawaii, 0.97% in Illinois and 0.86% nationally, and the rent for an 8% return is 1.01% to 1.22% (our arithmetic). So the rule is not a myth: it is roughly where a leveraged house starts to work at today's rates. What it cannot do is tell a low-tax state from a high-tax one, which is why Illinois and New Jersey need about 1.2% of value for 8% and Hawaii and Utah need about 1.0%.
The 50% rule says operating expenses, without the mortgage, take about half of gross rent. In the calculator it is a line you can read for your own inputs; at the US medians the expenses in our table are 41% of gross rent (our arithmetic). It is a shortcut with no official standard. We could not find a standard definition of a "7% rule" for rentals. If it means a 7% gross yield (annual rent divided by price), no state's median reaches it: the highest is Mississippi at 6.37%. If it means a 7% cash-on-cash target, no state's median house reaches it either at 7.40% or 7.93%.
How the number lies
Cash-on-cash is easy to inflate. The examples below use one hypothetical house, not data: $150,000 price, $1,500 rent (1.0% of price, so it passes the 1% rule), $1,800 property tax, $1,200 insurance, 7.3% vacancy, 25% down, 3% closing costs, 7.93% over 30 years. The base case earns a 7.03% cap rate and 1.7% cash-on-cash.
| What changes | Cash-on-cash | Why the number moved (our arithmetic) |
|---|---|---|
| Base case: 25% down, 7.93% | 1.7% | NOI $10,551, debt service $9,840, cash flow $711 on $42,000 invested; DSCR 1.07 |
| Buy for cash | 6.8% | No payment: the whole NOI is cash flow on $154,500. The loan costs 8.75% a year of what is borrowed and the house yields 7.03%, so borrowing lowers the return (negative leverage) |
| Put 50% down | 5.0% | Debt service falls to $6,560; cash flow $3,991 on $79,500 |
| Put 20% down | 0.2% | Cash flow $55 on $34,500: almost no cushion, DSCR 1.01 |
| Drop the capital reserve (keep 5% maintenance) | 3.8% | Cash flow rises to $1,611. Roofs, HVAC units and water heaters still cost money in the years the reserve would have covered |
| Drop maintenance and the capital reserve | 6.0% | The typical pro forma that lists only tax, insurance and management; cash flow $2,511 |
| Also drop vacancy and management | 12.3% | Cash flow $5,160: a house that is always rented, never repaired and manages itself |
| Rent 10% lower ($1,350) | -1.5% | NOI $9,196 against debt service of $9,840: the cash flow turns negative |
| Rate at 7.40% instead of 7.93% | 2.9% | Debt service $9,347; the investor premium costs 1.2 points of return here |
| Rate at 6.00% | 5.9% | Debt service $8,094; the rate is the most powerful input after rent |
| Rent, tax and insurance +3% a year, year 3 | 3.2% | Payment fixed, NOI $11,194 |
| Same, year 5 | 4.8% | NOI $11,875, cash flow $2,035 |
| Same, year 10 | 9.3% | NOI $13,767, cash flow $3,927; assumes the tenant, the rent and the repairs behave |
Three lessons. Leverage helps only when the property yields more than the loan costs, and at 7.93% that requires a cap rate above about 8.75%, which none of the state medians comes near; this is the same point made at 7.5% in our rental property calculator page. A projection that skips capex and maintenance adds more than four points to this house, more than the whole base-case return. Rent growth is the honest way the number improves, but it is a forecast: year-one cash-on-cash is the figure to compare across deals, and the year-ten figure is a story about rents, taxes and repairs rising at the same pace. Also not in any of these numbers: income tax, depreciation, the cost of selling and what the cash would have earned elsewhere.
What you can do with this
- Enter your property, not the state median. Rent from a signed lease or comparable listings, property tax from the county on the sale price, insurance from two landlord quotes, loan rate and points from a written quote. The medians are only the starting point.
- Run the three stress cases. Rent 10% lower, rate 0.5 points higher, and an extra $2,000 a year for repairs. If cash flow turns negative in the first, the deal depends on everything going right.
- Compare cash-on-cash with the cap rate and the loan constant. If the cap rate is below the loan's yearly payment as a share of the loan (8.75% at 7.93%), the loan is lowering your return.
- Check the debt-service coverage. The calculator shows NOI divided by debt service; investor loans that qualify on the property's rent want a ratio at or above a lender's floor, see our DSCR loan calculator for the formulas lenders use.
- For a repair-and-refinance plan, divide by the cash left in the deal, not the cash you spent; our BRRRR method page walks through it.
If you want to save deals, compare them side by side and project them over many years, our DealCheck pricing and review covers what that software costs and what its free tier includes.
If you want a note when the inputs on this page change, for example when Freddie Mac's rate moves a full point or the Census Bureau publishes the 2025 ACS tables, leave your email here.
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FAQ
Rent, home value and real estate taxes: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year estimates, tables B25064, B25077 and B25103, downloaded from the data.census.gov API on October 7, 2026 (variable labels from the Census API metadata); release status of the 2025 1-year estimates: Census Bureau advisory of August 4, 2026, read October 9, 2026. Insurance: NAIC, Dwelling Fire, Homeowners Owner-Occupied, and Homeowners Tenant and Condominium/Cooperative Unit Owner's Insurance Report: Data for 2023 (July 2026), Table 4 (average dwelling-fire premium; defined for owner-occupied one-family buildings). Vacancy: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, second quarter 2026 (7.3%). Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, history file read October 9, 2026 (30-year fixed average, week of October 8, 2026, and the weekly readings dated in 2025). Investor premium: CFPB/FFIEC Home Mortgage Disclosure Act 2025 data, conventional originations in California, Florida, Georgia, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, filtered to first-lien home-purchase loans on one to four units with a 30-year term, no introductory rate period and a numeric note rate; the scripts and their outputs are saved with the page's source files. Closing costs (3%), maintenance (5%), capital reserve (5%), management (8%), the 25% down payment and the 8% target are our assumptions, not data. This is analysis of public records, not investment, legal, lending or tax advice.
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